Gross Flows analysis of Australian labour market – some improvement – August 2017

Today, I am writing from the Brighton, UK and today the first event of the British part of our Reclaim the State tour is to be held. See below for details. Last week, I attended the first International Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) conference, which although there have been many MMT-focused workshops or conferences in the past, was truly a gathering of the clan. The large number who attended (over 200 I believe) shows we are making progress. There is a snowball rolling and it will inevitably get bigger. The only danger of these focused events is that the ‘group’ can easily get trapped into thinking that the views expressed are the norm, which is the first step towards Groupthink. They are clearly not the norm and further work is required, but the fact that we can hold such a large conference focused exclusively on MMT is a significant step forward. I will write more about the MMT conference another day. Today, I want to focus on some statistics analysis – I had time on the plane journey across the Atlantic (Kansas City to London) to delve into the latest Gross Flows data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Gross flows analysis provides a different way of viewing the labour force data and often reveals some interesting trends that are hidden in the net analysis of labour market data.

Read more

Australian labour market – a relatively stronger result for August 2017

The latest labour force data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics – Labour Force data – for August 2017 shows that total employment growth was relatively robust (up 54,200) with full-time employment growth accounting for much of that increase. Unlike recent months, where if full-time growth was positive, part-time growth was negative (and vice versa), both components of employment rose. Further, the participation rate rose by 0.2 points as job opportunities expanded. Labour underutilisation overall (underemployment and unemployment) was at 14.1 per cent summing to 1,842.8 thousand persons. The teenage labour market showed further improvement but remains in a poor state. Overall, my assessment of the Australian labour market is that it still to early to conclude that the uncertainty of the last few years is giving way to sustained growth.

Read more

US labour market weakens as unemployment spikes up

On September 1, 2017, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their latest labour market data – Employment Situation Summary – August 2017 – which showed that total non-farm employment from the payroll survey rose by 156,000 in August, a smaller increase than in July, more like the weak result for May. So the July figure now seems to have been a blip in the data. The Labour Force Survey data showed that employment actually fell by 74 thousand in August and with the rise in the labour force (77 thousand), official unemployment rose by 151 thousand. The official unemployment rate also rose to 4.44 per cent. There are now 7.1 million unemployed persons in the US. There is still a large jobs deficit remaining and other indicators suggest the labour market is still below where it was prior to the crisis. Further, the bias towards low-pay and below-average pay jobs continues.

Read more

CEO pay trends in Australia are unjustifiable on any reasonable grounds

The latest report from the Australian Council of Superannuation Investors released on Thursday (August 24, 2017) – CEO Pay in ASX200 Companies: 2016 – shows how unfair and unsustainable the income distribution is in Australia. While there has been moderation in the growth of CEO pay after the ‘greed is good’ binge leading up to the GFC, the managerial class in Australia has still enjoyed real growth in pay at a time when the average worker is enduring either flat to negative growth in pay. Further, overall economic growth in Australia is being driven by increased non-government indebtedness as real wages growth (what there is of it) lags well behind productivity growth. And, at the same time, the Federal Government is intent on pursuing an austerity policy stance. All these trends are similar to the dynamics we experienced in the lead-up to the GFC. They are unsustainable. A major shift in income distribution away from capital towards workers has to occur before a sustainable future is achieved. The indicators are that there is no pressure for that to occur.

Read more

Europe – the deliberate wastage of its youth continues

Earlier this month (August 11, 2017), Eurostat published the latest European Union data for – Young people in the EU: education and employment. This data now allows us to track the fortunes of three age cohorts – 15-19, 20-24 and 25-29 years since before the crisis to the end of 2016. So a teenager prior to the crisis (2007) would be transiting into the 25-29 years cohort in 2016. One of the disturbing trends shown in the data is the increasing number of young people in the older ‘youth’ categories that in 2016 we classified as being Neither in Employment, nor in Education or Training (NEET). Some will have been in that category for the entire duration of the crisis – that is, they dropped out of school early, are not receiving any skills development and are unemployed. Whereas in 2007, the proportion of NEETs in the 25-29 years cohort was 17.2 per cent, that figure has risen to 18.8 per cent by 2016 (although the peak of 20.7 per cent was reached in 2012). This suggests that the systems which provide transitions between education and employment are not working effectively because the demand-side of the labour market is deficient. That is, there is a lack of jobs available overall and the most disadvantaged youth workers are at the back of the queue along with the disabled and other stigmatised cohorts (for example, Roma people in the European context). There is an urgent need for a true Youth Job Guarantee, to replace the faux Youth Guarantee that was introduced in 2012. But then that would require abandoning the obsession with austerity and dysfunctional fiscal rules. The European Commission’s answer to the problem will be to have another ‘summit’ or two and issue plenty of statements replete with motherhood statements.

Read more

Australian labour market – stumbling along with no definitive trend

The latest labour force data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics – Labour Force data – for July 2017 shows that total employment rose only modestly (27,900) while full-time employment contracted. Part-time employment rose by 48,200 reversing the decline from last month. As a result of a rise in the participation rate (0.1 points), unemployment rose by 1,100, and the official unemployment rate decreased by less than 0.1 pts to 5.6 per cent. Underemployment rose to 14 per cent as monthly hours of work declined with the fall in full-time employment. The broad labour underutilisation remains high at 14 per cent with unemployment and underemployment summing to 1,812.6 thousand persons. The teenage labour market showed a slight improvement but remains in a poor state. Overall, my assessment of the Australian labour market is that it remains in an uncertain state. There is no definitive trend yet.

Read more

US labour market – improves again in July

Shonk is an Australian/NZ slang word to describe someone engaged in shonky behaviour, which the Oxford Dictionary describes as being behaviour that is “Dishonest, unreliable, or illegal, especially in a devious way”. So a shonk means a “dishonest person; swindler or con artist” and while intent is implied it doesn’t have to be conscious action (note the inclusion of the descriptor “unreliable”). It could just mean stupidity or ignorance that leads to shonky performance. I will come back to that topic soon. On August 4, 2017, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their latest labour market data – Employment Situation Summary – July 2017 – which showed that total non-farm employment from the payroll survey rose by a relatively healthy 209,000 in July. The weak result for May now seems to have been a blip in the data. The Labour Force Survey data showed that employment rose by 345 thousand in July but was still not large enough an increase to offset the rise in the labour force (349 thousand), and as a consequence, official unemployment rose by 4 thousand. The official unemployment rate was stable though at 4.4 per cent. There are still 6.98 million unemployed persons in the US. There is still a large jobs deficit remaining and other indicators suggest the labour market is still below where it was prior to the crisis. Further, the bias towards low-pay and below-average pay jobs continues.

Read more

Australian government employment plan – racist and in breach of our laws

Today’s discussion is about how employment policy becomes so corrupted by neo-liberal ideology (overlaid with some healthy racism) that the government causes damage rather than advances well-being. The examples I outline demonstrate the wider problem that neo-liberal inspired governments clearly understand the economy is not working yet they cannot bring themselves to introduce obvious solutions to the problems identified. Further, while they claim their policy choices are constrained by the ‘money’ they have to spend (limited according to their narrative), when they do spend ‘money’ they bias the benefits to corporate interests as a profit subsidy rather than providing sustainable income support for the most disadvantaged who just become pawns in the subsidy to capital. And then, they pretend, they are obeying ‘market’ dictates when the ‘free market (not!)’ was never in the picture anyway. The on-going hypocrisy of this neo-liberal era.

Read more

Australian labour market remains in an uncertain state

The latest labour force data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics – Labour Force data – for June 2017 shows that while total employment rose only modestly (14,000) the strong rebound in full-time employment from last month continued (up 62,000). Part-time employment fell sharply though (48,000). As a result of a rise in the participation rate (0.1 points), unemployment rose by 13,100, although the official unemployment rate was steady at 5.6 per cent after the ABS revised it upwards by 0.1 points from the May result. The broad labour underutilisation remains high at 13.9 per cent with unemployment and underemployment summing to 1,795 thousand persons. The teenage labour market also deteriorated further in June and remains in a poor state. Overall, my assessment of the Australian labour market is that it remains in an uncertain state. There is no definitive trend yet.

Read more

US labour market – improves in June but still no growth trend is apparent

On July 7, 2017, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their latest labour market data – Employment Situation Summary – June 2017 – which showed that total non-farm employment from the payroll survey rose by a relatively healthy 222,000 in June, after a much weaker result in May 2017. The Labour Force Survey data showed that employment rose by 245 thousand in June but was still not large enough an increase to offset the rise in the labour force, and as a consequence, official unemployment rose by 116 thousand. The official unemployment rate rose by 0.1 points to 4.4 per cent as a result. There are still 6.98 million unemployed persons in the US. The Federal Reserve Board’s Labour Market Conditions Index showed a slight deterioration in the overall labour market. There is still a large jobs deficit remaining and other indicators suggest the labour market is still below where it was prior to the crisis. Further, the bias towards low-pay and below-average pay jobs continues.

Read more
Back To Top