The New Economy cannot flourish with fiscal austerity

I often get E-mails from readers – some hostile others more reasonable – telling me that I should stop arguing for more economic growth. The reasoning is relatively straightforward – the Earth is buckling under the rapacious resources demands of the capitalist system and not only is that process likely to be finite, notwithstanding substitution via technological advances, but also in the process of exhaustion the amenity declines. The argument juxtaposes ecological claims with other claims relating to the desirability of the current neo-liberal dominated system which relies, seemingly, on creating more inequality, a reduction in government oversight and allows the worst aspects of the capitalist system to run amok. However, somewhere along the way, the 99% or whatever percentage it is (I think it is substantially lower than 99) miss the boat. The current crisis is used to demonstrate that conjecture. I haven’t time to reply to all the E-mails and I try to provide “collective” replies (which should tell you something in itself) via my blog posts. So today I am addressing that issue. The message is simple – I am very sympathetic to localised, new economy-type collective ways of organising social and economic activities. I support egalitarianism and co-operative solutions rather than competitive, dog-eats-dog approaches. I don’t mind working and giving my surplus to aid those who are unable for whatever reason to achieve the same material outcomes by their own hand. I am happy with consolidation rather than growth. But despite the romantic appeal of all this – as the solution – we have to understand that there is still something called a monetary system and a currency to deal with. Localised solutions are still constrained by the sovereign state they are located in and their fortunes are determined in no small way by the way the currency-issuing government conducts its fiscal policy. There is no escape from that.

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Industry job dynamics in Australia

I have been number crunching today – heavy sort of crunching. One of the on-going discussions in the Australian context is the dual pattern of growth that is being observed here – which has arisen largely because, in essence, we are a primary commodity producer (and exporter) rather than an industrial nation. At present, some sectors (such as manufacturing and tourism) and regions (such as Sydney and Melbourne) are struggling while other sectors (such as mining) and regions (such as Western Australia, Northern Queensland and the Northern Territory) are booming. The East Coast where the majority of Australians live and work is probably close to recession. These trends – popularised by the term ‘two-speed economy’ – whereby serious sectoral and regional imbalances accompany overall economic growth, challenge the fundamental patterns of our economic and social settlements and threaten the financial viability of many Australian households. So I was computing job destruction and job creation rates today as part of an investigation of how the labour market is reacting the dual nature of economic outcomes at present. And then … the ABS published the Retail Sales data for April 2012 today and, as usual, everyone could interpret it in their own way. But it does bear somewhat on how we consider this dual growth pattern.

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StartUp Loans – neo-liberal smokescreen which denies macroeconomic reality

In the New Scientist last year (June 13 , 2011) there was an interview – A field guide to bullshit – with London-based academic philosopher Stephen Law about his book – Believing Bullshit: How not to get sucked into an intellectual black hole. I thought about that when I was reading the documentation relating to the latest con by the British government – its StartUp Loan scheme which will give tiny loans to vulnerable youth to launch businesses into a recessed economy. In fair times, the failure rate of small business is very high. Put inexperienced youth in the frame and it gets higher. Overlay a double-dip recession that will get worse (with perhaps an Olympic blip delaying the decline) over the next 12 months and you have another policy that will do very little to bring the 1 million plus youth unemployed back into productive life. The neo-liberals in the UK are increasingly chanting slogans like “MAKE A JOB DON’T TAKE A JOB” to extol the virtues of people creating their own work as a way of covering up the fact that the Government is deliberately destroying employment prospects (especially for the young). Schemes like the StartUp Loans join a long history of proposals designed to deal with mass unemployment which fail to understand the cause of the problem. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) tells us that mass unemployment arises because the budget deficit is too small given the saving intentions of the non-government sector. Aggregate demand has to rise to reduce unemployment. Providing a pittance to small businesses will not relieve the demand constraint on the labour market. It might redistribute the unemployment but will not do anything to significantly reduce it.

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The IMF bullying as usual

The head of the IMF gave an extraordinary interview to the UK Guardian (May 25, 2012) – Christine Lagarde: can the head of the IMF save the euro?. It is extraordinary because of the language used by the IMF boss and the almost shameless increase in the intensity of Troika bullying of Greece at its prepares for another round of national elections to attempt to resolve the impasse that was left after the last election. The Troika know full well that the majority of people in Greece hate austerity and support an alternative growth-oriented policy agenda. The Troika also knows that its spin that austerity means growth is not resonating with European voters who can read the newspapers and understand the blatant untruth of the fiscal contraction expansion narrative. So they are exploiting the irrational view held by the majority of Greeks that they are better off staying with the Euro. By making out that the issue is about membership of the Euro, the Troika are introducing fear into the voting process to reinforce the TINA line that austerity is the only show in town. The Greek voters will succumb to that fear because they do not appreciate that membership of the Euro is austerity under current arrangements.

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Saturday quiz – May 26, 2012 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you understand the reasoning behind the answers. If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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2012 becomes 1844 or thereabouts

I had a little reminisce today and took a mental journey back to the North of England where I studied for a time. Although this time (early 1980s) was just before the digital age, I have collected bits of information about the economic and social life of workers and capitalists in early industrial England. And, of-course, there are some wonderful accounts in the wider literature of what life was like in those days. These were times when there were no unions, no job security, no income support, no safety standards, and little or no sanitation of public health regulations in the urban areas where workers were sequestered by the ruling elites. While the rich industrialists erected open spaces and promenades to surround their luxury residential facilities, the workers mostly lived in filth and died dreadful deaths. There was a reason that this way of doing business was attacked by growing worker discontent throughout England and Europe in the late 1840s and beyond. There is a reason trade unions formed. There is a reason that governments were forced by popular pressure to introduce income support and labour market regulations. People can only be put down for so long and the capitalist system is built on a very small minority seeking to repress the rights and rewards of the vast majority. Once the greed pushes the balance too far to the minority – their hegemony is threatened. We might be in 2012 but the elites are once again driving us all back to 1844 or thereabouts. They will rue the day.

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Japan grows – expansionary fiscal policy works!

I have been noticing that a new narrative is coming out of the financial journalists acting as mouthpieces for various politicians and neo-liberal think-tanks around the place – along the lines that we have got it wrong – the debate now is not about austerity versus growth – but, rather, it is about structural reform and freeing up markets. The austerity is just a re-alignment of the public-private mix. I find that offensive but also odd – given that private businesses are being undermined at a rate of knots by the austerity and capital formation is stagnant (thereby undermining future prosperity). But amidst all this reinvention you still read the same scaremongering and mis-information along the traditional lines – austerity is good and the hope that increased spending can help is a pipe dream.

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Not everybody can de-lever at the same time

The title reflects fact not opinion. However, most commentators still fail to grasp that reality. In the current economic climate it means one thing – imposing fiscal austerity in the hope that governments can reduce debt levels will fail and bring with it devastating consequences for the non-government sector. It is the latter sector that has reduce its debt exposure and under current institutional arrangements that means the government sector has to increase deficits (and debt) not other way round. The simple fact is that when private spending is subdued the government sector has to run commensurate deficits to support the process of private de-leveraging by sustaining growth. Those advocating fiscal austerity or those who claim that the amount of outstanding private debt is simply too large for the Government to replace with public debt fail to understand the basic tyranny of the sectoral balance arithmetic. Put simply, not everybody can de-lever at the same time.

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A voice from the past – budget deficits are neither good nor bad

The International Labour Organization (ILO) released its Global Employment Trends for Youth 2012 report today (May 22, 2012). It is harrowing reading and I will consider it later in the week. It tells us that youth unemployment is rising and will be unlikely to see any improvement until at least 2016. The ILO recommend a raft of government initiatives which would require budget deficits to expand. But, of-course, the dominant political narrative is to cut deficits in the false belief that this will engender growth. Exactly the opposite is happening and for good reason. I came across an article from 1982 today which tells us why austerity is dangerous and damaging. It also conditions us to understand that budget deficits are neither good nor bad but policy choices can be.

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