British labour market is very active but stuck

The British economy has entered a double-dip recession as a result of aggregate spending slowdowns driven by a pessimistic private domestic sector, a poor net exports outlook and the increasing impacts of the fiscal austerity. The result has been that unemployment is stuck at its elevated levels and will likely rise in the coming year if the government doesn’t change its tack. However, the official data released last week by the UK Office of National Statistics (see link below) shows us that if you are employed in Britain at present the chances of losing one’s job are slim. It is rising but still very small. What the gross flows data allows us to appreciate is that the much-focused on unemployment rate does not tell us about the chances that are worker will remain in that state, become employed or leave the labour force. Even those the risk of an employed person becoming unemployed is low, it still remains that the chances of an unemployed person remaining so is higher and significantly higher than before the recession. This is because the net flows into employment are too low relative to the labour force growth. This blog is the first of a few which attempts to encourage people to look deeper into the statistics and gain a wider appreciation of what is happening in the labour market. I will write more on it in further blogs when I have more time.

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