Wealth inequality rising slowly in Australia

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the – Household Wealth and Wealth Distribution, Australia, 2011-12 – today, which is drawn from the bi-annual Survey of Income and Housing (SIH),first published in for 2003-04. My interest is in how the distributions changed during the period of the crisis and the fiscal stimulus. We are currently working on an update to our – Employment Vulnerability Index – which we hope to release sometime next week. The preliminary results suggest that the fiscal stimulus significantly reduced the risk of job loss in the period after the crisis. But more on that when we have analysed our results more carefully. Today’s data shows that wealth inequality is rising slowly in Australia but will accelerate if the proposals to further demolish the income support system and increase tax breaks for the wealthy are introduced after the next election.

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Fiscal space is a real, not a financial concept

Japanese economist Richard Koo recently (July 9, 2013) published his latest report on the world economy – Japan, US, and Europe face different issues – which updates some of the latest data available from the economies listed in the title. I am sorry that I cannot link to the Report as it is a subscription service (thanks to Antoine for my copy). I discussed some of Richard Koo’s ideas and how they sat with Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) concepts in this 2009 blog – Balance sheet recessions and democracy. While the basic concept of a balance sheet recession is important to grasp and the policy prescriptions that flow from it clearly point to the need for more fiscal stimulus, once you dig a little deeper into Koo’s conceptual framework you realise that he is very mainstream – more insightful than the average mainstream economist, who typically fails to even grasp the reality of the current situation, but mainstream nonetheless. And that means there are some things in his theoretical framework that are plain wrong when applied to a modern monetary economy

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Violence, suffering and denial

I wrote about the way the recent neo-liberal narrative in the UK, that constructs the unemployed as gaming the income support system and about how they need to be weeded out by harsher activity tests etc, is a theme Australians will be familiar with in this blog – The victims become the perpetrators – the neo-liberal smokescreen. The discussion touched on the way we abstract from the human suffering that accompanies mass unemployment and how the dominant paradigm seeks to construct the unemployed as an “Other” different to ourselves and accountable for their own state. Unemployment is not seen as a violent act deliberately perpetrated by us (through the agency we give our governments – the “mandate”) but rather as a chosen outcome, a rational end of an informed choice. Perhaps not one we would take ourselves but rational nonetheless and therefore of no further concern. I have been reading some relatively oblique philosophical literature lately centred on conceptions of ethics and the way historical temporality forces us to take a moral perspective whether we like it or not – that is, denial of past action is a particular moral perspective. It bears on some work I am doing in remote Indigenous communities in the Northern Territory at the moment as well as broader debates that exist in society. Here are some notes and thoughts that arise from this sort of reading and reflection.

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Saturday Quiz – August 17, 2013 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you understand the reasoning behind the answers. If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

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IS-LM Framework – Part 4

I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to complete the text during 2013 (to be ready in draft form for second semester teaching). Comments are always welcome. Remember this is a textbook aimed at undergraduate students and so the writing will be different from my usual blog free-for-all. Note also that the text I post is just the work I am doing by way of the first draft so the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change once the two of us have edited it.

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The opportunities for the unemployed in Australia are deteriorating

I have very little time today given other commitments. In recent months the Australian labour market has deteriorated quite noticeably and the Government has been forced to revise its estimates of the unemployment rate up to 6.25 per cent from 5.75 per cent in 2014. It is currently at 5.7 per cent and rising and before the GFC it reached a low-point value of 4 per cent. Underemployment is also rising as is hidden unemployment as the participation rate falls due to lack of employment opportunities. Further, in the last 6 months around 84 per cent of the net jobs created have been part-time. For the first time in several federal elections, unemployment and the paucity of job openings has become an election issue. Today, I used the little free time I had available to update my gross flows database to see if we could discern these trends as changing transition probabilities. In this blog I analyse the flows between full-time and part-time employment as well as movements between non-participation and employment to finish off the story. This blog is thus just an exploration of the data and an exercise to keep my databases current and for me to know what they are saying. The empirical side of my working life!

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Witchdoctors and shamans

Australia is in the midst of a federal election campaign (the election is September 7, 2013), which while short by, say US standards, is no less asinine. The sophistication of economic commentary from both sides of politics is non-existent even though every day there is a mountain of such commentary. It is a very trying period and I have been trying to avoid engaging with it as much as possible bar the almost daily press interviews about the latest announcement of release. Here are a few examples of what a sane economist like me has to put up with. The problem, of-course, is not that my sensibilities are being upset. Precious me! The real problem is that the public are continually being confronted by economics editors, professors and others who provide misleading and/or incorrect economic analysis, which distorts the way in which peope (who vote) think and act. We are really in flat earth territory at the moment and the future generations will not think of us very kindly for both our ignorance and the damage we leave for them.

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Fiscal austerity damages growth – latest evidence

Republican Presidential (Bush) and Presidential hopeful (Romney) advisor and a principal deficit terrorist, Glenn Hubbard has once again re-cycled his obsession about the apparent necessity for the US to pass a balanced budget amendment which would require governments to eschew their fiscal responsibility and behave like automatums irrespective of the state of the cycle or the behaviour of the other sectors (external and private domestic). In his latest New York Times article (August 11, 2013) – Republicans and Democrats Both Miscalculated – (with T. Kane), we see a tired conservative hack, worn out from repeated failed attempts to push a balanced budget amendment into US law, wimpering about the need for another vote on this issue, but signifying a boring lameness that is being overtaken by the duration of time that has elapsed without the doomsday arriving and more recent evidence refuting the position outright.

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The spurious distinction between the short- and long-run

There was an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal (July 7, 2013) by US economist Alan S. Blinder – The Economy Needs More Spending Now . I am building a little database of what well-known economists said in 2008, 2009 and 2010 at the height of the crisis and in the early days of the fiscal and monetary interventions and what they are saying now. There is a lot of dodging and weaving I can tell you. Stories change, previous prognostications of certainty now appear highly qualified and nuanced and facts are denied. Alan Blinder was worried that the US Federal Reserve rapid building of reserves would have to be withdrawn quickly because otherwise banks would eventually lend them all out and inflation would accelerate. Of-course, banks don’t lend their reserves to customers and the predictions were not remotely accurate. In the article noted, Blinder continues to operate at what I am sure he thinks is the more reasonable end of mainstream macroeconomics. He is advocating more spending as a means of boosting higher economic growth. But when you appreciate the framework he is operating in, you realise that he is just part of the problem and part of the narrative that allows the IMF to talk about “growth friendly austerity” – the misnomer (or outright lie) of 2012-13.

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