Australian national accounts – growth plummets as policy fails

In September, I wrote of the 2nd-quarter national accounts data that the economy was weak and getting weaker. The – September-quarter 2014 data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today confirms that prognosis. Weak is an understatement. Real GDP growth grew by by a miserable 0.3 per cent a further drop on the 0.5 per cent in the June-quarter 2013. The annualised growth rate of 2.7 per cent is being held up by the strong in late 2013 but something around 1.2 to 1.8 per cent per annum looking forward is a more realistic assessment of where the economy is at present. Despite a substantial fall in the terms of trade, net exports contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth while consumption contributed 0.4 points. A major decline in private and public investment shaved off 0.7 percentage points. Fiscal austerity is set to worsen, which means that the data paints a fairly gloomy picture for the Australian economy for the next year at least.

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