Alleged Greek growth could be an illusion

It seems that Greece is still in trouble with the Athens Stock Exchange share prices tumbling rather abruptly in recent weeks. In the last 6 days or so the Athens Stock Exchange Composite Index has plunged by around 19 per cent on the back of growing political tension and the strong likelihood that the pro-austerity, Troika surrender monkeys in power at present will be tossed out and a new dialogue with Europe will begin. The snap election call has spooked the markets it seems. But I have also been puzzling about (read: been deeply suspicious of) the growth narrative that is being peddled about Greece by the European Commission and the IMF. There remain unsolved puzzles about the third-quarter 2014 Greek national accounts data, which is another way of saying they don’t quite add up. It may be that the alleged real GDP growth of 0.7 per cent was a statistical artifact – the case of incomes falling less slowly than prices. The evidence certainly suggests that is the case. That is what this blog is about.

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