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Australia labour force – employment rises – but caution required

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for July 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the Australian labour market improved this month with both positive employment growth and rising participation. Unemployment increased as did the unemployment rate because of the surge in participation. Teenagers gained some traction in employment growth this month but their situation remains parlous. As explained below, this month’s estimates should be heavily discounted given the population estimates the ABS use to scale its sample data are clearly overly optimistic. The data tells me that the economy is not going backwards and may be on the slight improve over the last few months. But with the forecasts for rather dire investment cuts by firms it is clearly too early to call an end to the very poor performances revealed over the last 36 months or so.

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