Australian labour market – still weak with a moderate upturn

In the previous two months, there was virtually zero employment growth and labour force participation declined. The latest labour force data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics – Labour Force data – for March 2016 show that those ominous signs are still hovering above the labour market. Total employment growth was modest at best – 26,100 (net) jobs created but full-time employment fell by 18,800. There was also a decline in hours worked which is now trending downwards. The growth in part-time work suggests that overall the quality of work in Australia declined in March 2016. So overall a poor outcome. Unemployment fell this month but this is largely because the weak employment growth is interacting with even weaker labour force growth. But still, a decline in unemployment, not induced by a fall in the participation rate is a welcome outcome. The teenage labour market remains in a poor state even though the 15-19 year olds enjoyed part-time employment growth. Overall, with private investment forecast to decline further over the next 12 months, the Australian labour market is looking very weak and the Federal government should be introducing a rather sizeable fiscal stimulus in its upcoming fiscal statement. This should include large-scale public sector job creation which would ensure teenagers regained the jobs that have been lost due to the fiscal drag over the last several years. However, the Federal government appears incapable of addressing this dire issue. It is embroiled in mythical discussions about running out of money and not being able to defend the economy if there is another crisis. All make believe, while the real world does head towards another major rift.

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