US labour market in an uncertain limbo

Last week, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August 2016 – Employment Situation – which showed that total non-farm employment rose by only 151,000 and the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.9 per cent. Employment growth was well below the expectation (although the banking economists are rarely close) and the question now is being raised as to whether the US has reached a cyclical peak (turning point) and things will get worse from here. While that is difficut to determine on a few months data the fact remains that the US federal government can always offset a slowdown through appropriate fiscal policy interventions if it chooses fit. To dig deeper into the data, I have analysed the Job Openings and Labour Turnover Statistics (JOLTS) which was updated by the BLS yesterday (September 7, 2016). While the number of job openings increased there was little change in the hire and separation rates, which suggests a static situation. In general, it looks as if the US labour market is cooling although perhaps describing the current situation as being an uncertain limbo is more apposite.

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