Australian economy recovers somewhat as the restrictions ease

The Australian economy officially exited recession in the September-quarter 2020, but I wouldn’t tell the labour market that. A technical recession, in case you were not aware, is defined as two, consecutive quarters of negative growth. But, given that employment always lags the start of a recovery, things remain much worse in the labour market than the GDP figures would indicate. Further, we still haven’t a clear idea of what will happen when the wage subsidy and the unemployment supplement schemes are wound back. If things are not well and truly pumping before the Government starts withdrawing the stimulus then bleak(er) times are ahead. The latest data release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics of the – Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, September 2020 (released December 2, 2020) – shows that the Australian economy grew by 3.3 per cent in the September-quarter after contracting by 7 per cent in the previous quarter as a result of the extensive lockdowns. Household Consumption expenditure rose strongly as opportunities to spend increased and disposable income recovered somewhat. The wage share fell to record levels though (49 per cent) as the real wage growth was outpaced by productivity growth. Overall, I expect the next quarter (December) to be stronger given the recovery that Victoria will bring after opening its economy back up again.

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